Empirical edges · not gut feelings

Find the edge the
bookies miss.

Strappa models every player prop from real game data, then compares it to the live market — surfacing only the bets where the price is genuinely in your favour.

No tips. No hunches. Just a model vs the book — with the maths shown.
Today · top edges live
N. Newman AFL · disposals
o20.5 @ 1.65
+18%
D. Cease MLB · strikeouts
o6.5 @ 1.85
+14%
A. Cerra AFL · handballs
o9.5 @ 3.35
+22%
P. Skenes MLB · strikeouts
o7.5 @ 2.40
+9%
+19¢
per $1 on value bets*
14k+
predictions graded
2
sports — AFL & MLB
100%
maths shown, no black box

*Modelled performance on graded value bets to date. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Bet responsibly.

A model, not a tipster.

Every edge is derived from data you can inspect — no opaque “expert” calls.

1

Model the player

We fit a probability distribution to each player's recent form — strikeouts, disposals, goals — adjusted for the exact opponent they face tonight.

2

Compare to the book

That projected probability is measured against the live bookmaker price across markets, stripping out the vig to find the true gap.

3

Surface the edge

Only bets where our number beats the market show as value — ranked by edge, filtered for reliability, with suggested stake sizing.

Built for player props.

Counting-stat markets, where a real statistical model has a genuine edge.

🏉

AFL

Disposals · marks · goals · kicks

MLB

Pitcher strikeouts · hits · bases

🏀

NBA / WNBA

Points · rebounds · assists — soon

Strappa Strappa

strappare — to snatch the win.

Predictions, not promises.

Strappa is a tool for thinking, not a tipster handing you certainties.

It's a model, and models are wrong

Every output is a probability estimate from data — frequently inaccurate, never a sure thing. We show the maths, including the markets where we have no edge.

It's not advice

Nothing here is betting, financial or professional advice, or a recommendation to place a bet. Strappa is not a bookmaker and never handles your money.

The risk is yours

Any bet you place is your decision and your risk. Past performance never guarantees future results. Only ever stake what you can afford to lose.

Common questions

Is Strappa a betting tipping service?

No. Strappa publishes statistical predictions for information and entertainment. It is not a tipster, not betting advice, and not a recommendation to bet. What you do with the numbers is entirely up to you.

Will I make money?

There is no guarantee of any kind. Edges are small, variance is real, and the model is often wrong. Betting carries risk and you can lose money. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Where do the numbers come from?

Models fit to historical and form data — player game logs, pitcher records, race form — adjusted for the specific matchup. The market price is compared after the model has its own number, so we're not just echoing the bookies.

Who can use it?

Adults 18 and over, where it's legal to do so. See our Terms of Use.

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Stop guessing. Start measuring.

See today's edges across AFL and MLB.

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